The Forecaster Test- based on Tetlock's superforecasting research

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The Forecaster Test- based on Tetlock's superforecasting research is a business in show hn launch.

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In Tetlock's 20-year Expert Political Judgment study, domain experts performed no better in their own field than outside it — and "hedgehog" specialists actually did worse when predicting within their specialty. The Good Judgment Project (Tetlock & Mellers) later found that superforecasters weren't dramatically smarter than average participants — what separated them was thinking style. What predicts accuracy? Calibration, Bayesian reasoning, and willingness to update beliefs. These traits beat raw intelligence and domain knowledge. I built a 10-minute test that measures them:Bayesian updating: Commit to a probability, receive new evidence, update. Tests whether you move the right direction a

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Website: www.forecaster-test.com